中文
devexamples
← Workflows

阅读中文版本

Growth Capacity Forecast Workflow

Project growth from real trends, model the capacity and cost at each threshold, identify the next bottleneck, and plan the change before the threshold is hit.

intermediate~90 mincapacityreliabilityplanning

Objective

Forecast capacity needs from real growth so the next bottleneck is addressed ahead of impact.

Environment

  • Usage and growth trend data
  • A capacity model for the main resources

Steps

1. Project growth from real trends, not

Project growth from real trends, not aspirational targets alone.

Expected state: The forecast is grounded.

2. Model capacity and cost at each

Model capacity and cost at each growth threshold.

Expected state: Thresholds and their costs are known.

3. Identify the next resource to saturate

Identify the next resource to saturate.

Expected state: The next bottleneck is named.

4. Plan and schedule the change before

Plan and schedule the change before the threshold date.

Expected state: Action happens ahead of impact.

Decision points

Scale vertically or horizontally?

  • Horizontally where possible
  • Vertically

Horizontal scaling is usually easier to operate; vertical only when the workload cannot be sharded.

Forecast on peaks or averages?

  • Peaks with headroom
  • Averages

Size for peaks plus headroom; averages hide the busy hour that actually saturates the system.

Expected outcome

A forecast with identified thresholds, the next bottleneck, and a scheduled change to stay ahead of it.

Verification

Confirm the forecast matches recent observed growth and that the planned change date precedes the projected threshold date.

Cleanup

Record the forecast assumptions and the plan for the next review.

Overview

Forecast capacity needs from real growth so the next bottleneck is addressed ahead of impact. Confirm the forecast matches recent observed growth and that the planned change date precedes the projected threshold date.

Steps

  1. Project growth from real trends, not aspirational targets alone. Expected state: The forecast is grounded.
  2. Model capacity and cost at each growth threshold. Expected state: Thresholds and their costs are known.
  3. Identify the next resource to saturate. Expected state: The next bottleneck is named.
  4. Plan and schedule the change before the threshold date. Expected state: Action happens ahead of impact.
# simple linear projection from the observed trend
awk 'NR>1 {print $1, $2}' usage.csv | head
# fit and project the next threshold date

Verification

  • A forecast with identified thresholds, the next bottleneck, and a scheduled change to stay ahead of it.

Decision points

  • Scale vertically or horizontally? Options: Horizontally where possible; Vertically. Recommended: Horizontal scaling is usually easier to operate; vertical only when the workload cannot be sharded.
  • Forecast on peaks or averages? Options: Peaks with headroom; Averages. Recommended: Size for peaks plus headroom; averages hide the busy hour that actually saturates the system.